Obama has consistently been ahead in the polls. But are the polls any indication of what the final result will be? Do voters answer the poll questions honestly? Are blacks saying in the polls that they plan to vote for Obama reasoning that they must vote that way in order to not betray their race, feeling obligated to answer that way, even though they may very well vote differently? Are whites saying in the polls they plan to vote for Obama for fear that they may be considered racist, while secretly considering voting for McCain?

Inaccurate voter opinion polls are nothing new, especially in American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. The term Bradley effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in the past. The name Bradley effect comes from the 1982 campaign involving a black politician, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley ran for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls on the final days before the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead. The exit polls on election day also projected a Bradley win.
The following morning's San Francisco Chronicle went as far as to feature a headline proudly stating: "BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED". But after all the votes were counted, despite the heavy lead in the polls, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Research later indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and many voters who had been classified "undecided" had gone to Deukmejian too.

In the current race for President, it makes me wonder if the statistically significant numbers of white voters telling pollsters in advance of this election that they are undecided, or are likely to vote for Obama, are planning on taking a completely different opinion with them into the voting booth on election day. When pulling the lever, will these white voters that claimed they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward McCain? And will many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for Barack Obama ultimately cast their ballot for McCain as well? And are blacks that are enthusiastically saying they plan to vote for Obama truly going to do so when in the privacy of the voting booth, without any pressure from their peers?

It may be that the privacy of a voting booth has a tendency to change people's opinions, and that change may not be favorable for Obama.

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Also posted on Political Pistachio and A Newt One

News has come across the wire that Hezbollah has given over to Israel two coffins that may contain the bodies of Israeli soldiers that were captured two years ago. An exchange, reported to be mediated by the United Nations, is the beginning of a prisoner exchange that is supposed to continue between Israel and Hezbollah.

Is this the beginning of a peace process, or another in the long train of events that will wind up in Hezbollah changing their position and striking out against Israel as they have so many times in the past?

Yesterday I received in the mail a letter from my Aunt and Uncle who live in Hawaii. The letter was sent to give me some bad news. Aunt Chonita, my biological father's sister, also a resident of Hawaii (as well as Carmel, California), passed away. She is the third of the four children to pass. My Uncle Stan, the uncle in Hawaii, is the surviving child of the four. My father passed away in 1999.

Chonita was an interesting member of the family, always active in community work, as well as a member of a number of Honolulu associations. During her life she had traveled the world, working closely with Dr. Carl G. Jung at one point, and was one of 12 international therapists selected as founding members of the International Society of Sandplay Therapy. She worked with both children and adults, taught and trained students of Sandplay in addition to lecturing on the subject in the U.S. and Japan. The use of Sandplay Therapy remains in the family, used by my cousin Tina in Sausalito, California with her patients.

Today, at the end of my radio show on Blog Talk Radio, my mom called me to advise me that my step-dad's brother (remember, my step-dad has been my dad since I was two years old, so he is my dad to me as much, if not more-so, than my father was) passed away this afternoon in Arkansas. He was the youngest of the eight kids, dead, apparently, due to a heart attack.

In the case of both families, connections are being made. Old conversations are being renewed, memories have been passed along, tears are being shed.

I barely knew Chonita. That is regrettable since she had so much to offer in life. Robbie, my step-dad's brother, I mostly remember from childhood. I haven't been in touch much since then, making only a couple trips to Arkansas in the last twenty years.

After my dad died I reconnected with my Uncle Stan and his wife in Hawaii, as well as a couple cousins. After my grandmother (step-dad's mom) died a few years ago I re-connected with a number of family members that I hadn't seen since childhood. And now that these two deaths have occurred, I have connected with other members of my family. When my grandfather (mom's dad) passed away a few years ago, it gave me the chance to reconnect with the Davis part of my family.

And my wife scolded me. "Why is it," she asked me, "that you only talk to family when death comes? Why is it that a death must occur for your family to come together?"

As much as I hate to admit it, she is correct. It's a shame that it takes death, sometimes, to bring families back together, if only for a moment. The family bond is supposed to tie families together. But the rush of making a living interferes with it. We don't make the time.

Well, I am here to tell you that we have to make time. We have to be there for family. Blood, after all, is thicker than water - and even in my step-dad's family's case, the connection must be rekindled and nurtured.

And of course, being who I am, I have located a political connection as well.

Conservatives have lost touch with each other, becoming complacent, and bickering over minor differences. We complain about Barack Obama, but we don't unite to stop him. Because we have many difficulties with the stances that McCain has, we fail to rally behind him. We let other people vote. We let other people contribute to campaigns. And we lose touch with the reasons we became interested in politics, and became conservatives, in the first place.

Like I must be with my family, conservatives need to be united and there for each other. Without a united front, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States of America. We must combine to defeat him. We must unite and rally behind the only candidate with the chance to beat Obama.

Remember, my friends. United we stand. Combined we kick butt.

Be involved.

Don't be complacent.

Your fears of an Obama Presidency is a call to action. Hear that call, and take action!

Don't let the death of our freedoms under an Obama regime, or the death of the Republican Party, be the only thing that may bring us together. Let's come together before death comes.